San Francisco Silverspot Butterfly (F. & S. II 298) © Andy Warhol 1983
Andy Warhol (1928 - 1987)
Andy Warhol is widely regarded as one of the greatest American Pop artists. He began his career as a commercial artist for fashion magazines like Vanity Fair and Harper’s Bazaar, but it wasn't until the establishment of “The Factory,” his artistic studio, that he catapulted into celebrity stardom.
At The Factory, Warhol produced some of his most famous and iconic prints, harnessing a unique talent for choosing portrait subjects that extended beyond celebrity figures, including fictional characters, consumer objects and even animals. The subjects of his portraits were grouped into collections and conceived as Complete Sets. Warhol experimented with an exploratory range of colour for each print before finalising the main edition, which led to the creation of Trial Proofs (TPs). These editions were produced in varying quantities, with each print uniquely marked and numbered as “TP,” making them distinctive and the closest print edition to an original work. As key print edition classifications in Warhol’s market, TPs and Complete Sets have seen a significant increase in market value over the past 10-year period.
Meet the team
MyArtBroker, 180 Strand Temple, London, WC2R 1EA (by appointment only)
Warhol's belief that “Art is what you can get away with” encapsulates his revolutionary approach. By blending commercial culture with fine art, he broke traditional boundaries and established a dynamic and enduring market for his prints, securing his place as a cornerstone in contemporary art collections.
Warhol Market Performance
Market Overview
Warhol’s Print Market Grows From £10 million to £50 million
Warhol's art market remains one of the most lucrative in the industry, with print market turnover in sales value growing from £10 million to £50 million year-on-year (YoY) over the past decade. This sustained success can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Warhol's ability to tap into popular culture and create iconic images that span a broad price range has cultivated a diverse and extensive buyer base. Additionally, the dynamics of Warhol’s market, particularly the nature of editioned prints, contribute significantly to the overall market share, driving demand and maintaining high sales prices. These elements collectively bolster Warhol's market presence and appeal among collectors and investors.
Complete Sets and Trial Proofs: Key Drivers in Warhol's Print Market
Warhol’s print market is composed of main editions, special proofs, and Complete Sets. Over the past decade, these segments have collectively generated £228 million from over 4,600 lots sold.
Main editions, the most frequently traded on the public market, account for 78% of the lots sold over this period. However, Complete Sets, despite representing only 7% of the lots sold, control 39% of the market share by sales value. This disparity underscores their rarity and high-value appeal, demonstrating the significant impact Complete Sets have on Warhol's print market. Additionally, there is a growing demand for TPs, which make up 5% of both sales value and lots sold over the past decade. The scarcity and desirability of these individual works among collectors drive their higher sales value, making them crucial to the strength of Warhol's print market.
Current Performance
As of H1 2024, Warhol's overall market has contracted in both sales value and lots sold across all editioned segments—Complete Sets, TPs, main editions, and other proofs—compared to the same period last year. This contraction is largely due to fewer lots being traded, a trend that can be attributed to collectors holding onto these high-value pieces, waiting for more favourable market conditions to sell.
Currently, the total sales value for Warhol's print market stands at £15.3 million, representing 44% of the overall sales value from 2023, with 267 lots sold—60% fewer than the previous year. These dynamics indicate a healthy Average Selling Price (ASP) for each segment of Warhol's market. However, the final outcome for Warhol's print market by year-end will depend on external market conditions and the performance of each different market segments, including Complete Sets, TPs, and main editions. A balanced market share among these segments is crucial for maintaining the stability and growth of Warhol's overall market presence.
Complete Sets
Market Performance
Complete Set Sales Achieve Records In 2022
The success and contractions of Warhol's print market are largely attributed to fluctuations in its various segments. When high-value segments perform well, the market thrives. In 2022, Complete Sets exhibited a record-setting performance with 65 sets sold, more than double the total from the previous year. The Average Selling Price (ASP) for Complete Sets increased to £437,000 in 2022, contributing to a total sales value of £28.4 million, which accounted for 50% of Warhol’s print market share that year.
Complete Sets contract by 19% in 2023
In 2023, Complete Sets saw a significant decline, with a 50% drop in sales value and a 37% decrease in lots sold. This led to a lower ASP of £347,000, 21% down from the previous year. The challenging economic backdrop of 2023 particularly affected works valued above £1 million, which subsequently resulted in a smaller trading network for these high-value works compared to other market segments.
Market Trends for Warhol's Iconic Sets in 2023
Despite an overall contraction in 2023, certain Complete Sets appreciated in value. Notably, collections such as Flowers, Campbell’s Soup, and Marilyn Monroe all set new records, each achieving over £1 million at the hammer. Although there were fewer transactions for Complete Sets, buyer preference for these relatable subjects and culturally iconic subjects remained strong. This trend indicates strategic buyer confidence, focused on acquiring high-value, iconic works amid market softening. Collectors appear to prioritise these emblematic pieces, reflecting a resilient market segment even during challenging economic conditions.
Current Performance
In H1 2024, nine out of 12 Complete Sets sold for under £500,000, while three surpassed this mark. The higher-valued lots reflected the collector preference and buyer confidence seen in 2023, with Warhol's iconic subjects at the top of the price range.
Campbell’s Soup I (1968) sold in Q1 for £735,000, and Ten Portraits Of Jews (1980) hammered at £805,000 in Q2. Marilyn Monroe (1967) showcased the highest demand, selling in Q2 for £2.4 million, indicating further appreciation from 2023.
The volume of Complete Sets sold in H1 2024 is nearly half compared to the same period last year, with 12 sets sold versus 22, leading to a 26% dip in sales value.
Auction House Performance
Christie's and Sotheby’s Lead In Complete Set Sales
Christie’s and Sotheby’s have consistently shown strong performances in the consignment and sale of Complete Sets. Both auction houses have remained stable over the years, except for Sotheby’s record-breaking year in 2022, where they facilitated the sale of 38 Complete Sets, achieving a sales value of £20.1 million.
In 2023, Christie’s sold 13 Complete Sets surpassing the amount by other global auction houses, resulting in a sales value of £7.2 million, 39% above Sotheby's who ranked second with £5.2 million. This success is attributed to the sales of high-valued Complete Sets above £1 million, from in-demand collections featuring Warhol’s most iconic subjects.
Phillips turnover was the lowest sales value, with six sales in 2023 totalling £547,000.
Other Global Auction House Performance
Despite the dominance of Christie’s and Sotheby's, other global auction houses outside the big three have shown strong competition. These houses facilitated five sales in H1 2024 and 12 in 2023. Although competitive in the number of lots sold, their lower performance in sales value is attributed to more affordable price points, with Complete Sets typically selling for less than £1 million. These houses often handle Complete Sets that fall within a more accessible price range, including collections like Ladies And Gentlemen (1975), Saint Apollonia (1984), Kiku (1983), Sex Parts (1987), and others. This distribution offers collectors a variety of options, contributing to the broader market for Warhol's works.
Trial Proofs
Market Performance
Trial Proofs Surge In Value and Volume
TPs represent a unique segment within Warhol’s print market, classified under special edition proofs. Unlike main editions and Complete Sets, which saw declines in sales value and lots sold from 2022 to 2023, TPs performed exceptionally well, more than doubling in both sales value and number of lots sold compared to 2022. In 2023, TPs achieved nearly £3 million across 39 lots, up from £1.3 million across 16 lots in 2022, marking a 124% increase in sales value and setting a record performance for this editioned category. The ASP of TPs in 2023 was a competitive £76,700, just 8% lower than the previous year despite more than doubling the number of lots sold, indicating a significant increase in both demand and value for Warhol’s TPs.
The demand for more affordable works in 2023 led to increased interest in TPs, which offer a unique alternative to original works due to their distinct colour variations. This shift in buyer preference underscores the adaptability and resilience of Warhol's print market in responding to economic fluctuations. The sales value market share for TPs increased by 5% from 2022 to 2023, with positive performance also observed in other proofs.
Demand For Iconic Trial Proof Prints
The performance of TPs in Warhol's market began to see notable increases in value in 2022. This shift was marked by the first TP sales to achieve over £200,000: Queen Elizabeth II (TP) (1985) sold for £220,000, and Siberian Tiger (F. & S. II.297) (TP) (1983) reached £244,041. These two sales represented a significant rise in demand for this segment of Warhol's market. With an aggregate total of £464,041 across two sales, these accounted for the largest TP market share across price distribution categories, representing 35% of the TP sales value in 2022.
Collector interest and demand for TPs continued to increase in 2023, further elevating their value. In 2023, the first TP sold for over £300,000. Superman (F. & S. II.260) (TP) (1981) achieved a record sale of £403,175 offered at Sotheby’s London marquee sales, representing 13% of Warhol’s TP market share by sales value for a single print. Another colour variation of this same TP sold for £251,984 sitting within the £200,000 and £300,000 range, making up 9% of Warhol’s TP market share in 2023.
High value sales for individual TP prints highlight a trend and collector preference for relatable imagery and themes of consumerism, which are often considered more secure investments during a volatile market.
Trial Proofs Increases Across All Price Ranges
Warhol’s TP market has shown significant growth across all price distribution categories in both sales value and lots sold. In 2023, 49% of Warhol’s TPs sold, totaling 19 lots, were priced at £50,000 and below, more than double the sales volume from 2022. In terms of sales value, the majority market share of 40% consisted of works priced between £100,000 and £200,000, reflecting a fivefold increase compared to the previous year.
Current Performance
In Q1 2024, the volume of TPs entering the market remained consistent with the same period the previous year, with four sales totalling £247,000. This represents a significant increase compared to Q1 2023, where the same number of sales reached only £86,000, marking a 2.9-fold increase in value.
However, in Q2 2024, only five TPs entered the market, a notable decrease from the 17 sold in Q2 2023. This decline in turnover is likely due to the current market conditions and softening. Collectors may be holding onto their prints, waiting for more favorable times to sell when estimates and overall figures begin to rise again for rare editioned proof prints.
Auction House Performance
Sotheby’s Controls Sales Value for Trial Proofs
The sale of Warhol's TPs across different auction houses in 2023 revealed a varied pattern and distribution. Sotheby’s dominated the market, accounting for 39% of the lots sold and £1.5 million in sales value, accounting for 51% of the market share. Other global auction houses outside the big three (Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips) showed a competitive performance, selling 29% of TPs by lots sold but contributing only 12% of the total sales value, or £366,000. In comparison, Christie’s and Phillips controlled a larger market share of the sales value for TPs, at 19% and 17%, respectively, by fewer lots sold.
This data highlights two key insights: the extensive reach of Warhol’s global market and the significant influence branded auction houses have in attracting higher spenders to the market for unique prints and editions.
Competition Among Changing Auction Policies
In H1 2024, Sotheby’s continued to lead in terms of lots sold for TPs, but only slightly. Meanwhile, Christie’s and Phillips have significantly pulled ahead in terms of sales value. This shift indicates a dynamic market where established auction houses maintain strong competition, particularly with the ongoing changes in sales schedules and fee policies that have been implemented in the first half of 2024.
Collection Focus
Endangered Species
Endangered Species
Collection Overview
Warhol’s Endangered Species collection was created in 1983 in response to the the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA), implemented to protect species at risk of extinction, mandating the listing of endangered animals, designating critical habitats, and developing recovery plans. In this collection, Warhol created ten silkscreen prints, each featuring an endangered animal including the African Elephant, Siberian Tiger, San Francisco Silverspot Butterfly, and others. Aligning with the ESA’s mission, Warhol's vibrant depictions continue to raise awareness about these species' plight and emphasise the cultural relevance of the varied portrait subjects within Warhol's artistic oeuvre .
The Endangered Species prints first appeared in the secondary market in 1988, initially selling for only a few thousand pounds. Today, main editions of these prints reach hundreds of thousands, while TPs and Complete Sets are valued at a high premium.
Complete Sets and TPs Command Higher Values Despite Lower Sales Volume
Main editions from Warhol's Endangered Species collection accounted for the majority of lots sold, comprising 69% of the market share by volume in 2023. However, the highest value increases are seen in the ASP of Complete Sets and TPs, which make up only 6% and 12% of sales by volume, respectively. While Main Editions control a larger percentage of the market share by sales volume, Complete Sets and TPs command significantly higher values, underscoring their desirability and scarcity among collectors. This trend highlights the strong market demand for Warhol's more exclusive and unique works, emphasising the investment potential in these rarer segments of his print market.
Continued Growth in Sales Value Reflects Increasing Collector Recognition
In 2022, 14 works from Warhol's Endangered Species collection entered the market, resulting in a 19% increase in sales value, reaching £3.91 million. In 2023, this trend continued with 16 works sold, bringing the total sales value to a slight increase of £3.94 million. Although these works remain rare, the continued increases in volume and sales value reflect collectors' recognition of market trends and the increasing value of these pieces. This upward trend suggests a favourable market environment, indicating opportune times for sellers to consider listing their Warhol pieces. As demand continues to grow, these works are likely to maintain their strong market presence and appreciation in value.
Complete Sets
Complete Sets Come To Market In 2015
In 2015, Warhol's Endangered Species collection began to gain significant recognition with 14 sales in the secondary market, resulting in a turnover of £1.3 million. This year was particularly notable for the sale of four Complete Sets, which achieved an ASP of £275,500. However, from 2016 to 2020, the market for this collection experienced fluctuations, with Complete Sets disappearing from the public market.
Complete Set Auction Record: Sold for £2.4 Million, Representing 74% of Market Share
In 2021, Warhol's Endangered Species collection experienced a resurgence, likely driven by the rarity of these prints and increased post-COVID-19 spending power. 13 works, including Complete Sets, main editions, and other proofs, achieved a record YoY sales value of £3.3 million, the highest in the past 10-year period. Notably, one Complete Set sold for £2.4 million against a £550,000 high estimate, setting the current auction record for this set and accounting for 74% of the total market share for the collection that year. This sale is 8.7 times the ASP of four Complete Set sales in 2015, demonstrating a substantial increase in buyer demand and value. In both 2022 and 2023, only one Endangered Species Complete Set entered the market each year, accounting for over 50% of the yearly market share by sales value (each) and achieving sales above £2 million.
Trial Proofs
Endangered Species Trial Proofs Show Significant Value Increase Since 2017
Over the past 10-year period, the first Endangered Species TP to appear on the market was Black Rhinoceros (F. & S. II.301) (TP) in 2017, which sold for £49,917. TPs from this collection have remained rare, with only one appearing each year in 2018 and 2020. Due to their scarcity, demand for these TPs has driven a YoY increase in sales value. For instance, Bald Eagle (F. & S. II.296) (TP) sold for £76,397 in 2020, reflecting a 53% increase from the Black Rhinoceros TP sale in 2017.
Trial Proofs Set Auction Records
After disappearing from the market in 2021, TPs reemerged in 2022. In 2022, Siberian Tiger (F. & S. II.297) (TP) sold for £244,041 against a £115,000 high estimate, setting an auction record for this print. In 2023, two TPs were traded: Black Rhinoceros (F. & S. II.301) (TP) and Orangutan (F. & S. II. 299) (TP), selling for £160,666 and £96,227, respectively, each setting records at the time of sale.
Due to a 100% increase in sales volume in 2023 compared to the previous year, the ASP of Warhol's Endangered Species TPs declined by half, though the overall value remained stable. This trend highlights the balance between increased availability and consistent demand for Warhol prints from rare collections. In H1 2024, only one TP has entered the market, Pine Barrens Tree Frog (F. & S. II.294) (TP), selling for £128,662 also setting an auction record.
Endangered Species TPs have a global auction presence. While the value of individual prints depends on factors such as condition, colourway, and collector preference, their overall value is significantly heightened by their rarity. Since 2017, the value of individual TP Endangered Species prints has nearly tripled.
Consistent Sales and Lower Values From 2015-2019
From 2015 to 2019, the Warhol Endangered Species collection, including main editions, special proofs, and Complete Sets, maintained a high and consistent number of lots sold each year, with slight fluctuations, totalling 73 compared to 61 in the latter half of the decade. During this period, the sales value of the collection was significantly lower, with most individual works selling for less than £50,000 and no sales exceeding £100,000, except for four Complete Sets in 2015.
Significant Sales Value Increase In 2021
In 2021, the sales value of Warhol's Endangered Species collection saw a significant increase, as demonstrated by the year-on-year price distribution of all editions from this collection. Although there was a decrease in the volume of works sold, heightened demand drove prices up. Main editions began selling for £100,000 to £200,000, TPs saw increased sales values of £200,000 to £300,000, and Complete Sets sold for £700,000 or more.
Auction House Performance
The performance of Warhol's Endangered Species collection across auction houses shows a relatively even distribution. In 2019, a notable year for lots sold, 74% of the collection was sold outside the big three auction houses, with the sales value following a similar pattern. Typically, Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips handle the highest-valued sales of Warhol prints. However, the fact that other global auction houses accounted for the majority of the market that year suggests that the collection had not yet achieved its current prominence and value, but was still gaining wider recognition.
Following 2019, other global auction houses continued to lead in terms of lots sold, though by a small margin. When comparing sales values during the same period, larger auction houses, particularly Christie’s and Sotheby’s, have taken a significant lead, controlling the majority market share by sales value. This dominant position is attributed to their transactions involving Complete Set sales, which now exceed £2 million, substantially contributing to the overall sales value market share of the Endangered Species collection.
The distribution of sales across various auction houses for Warhol's Endangered Species collection represents a positive trend for collectors and sellers. It highlights the extensive reach of Warhol’s market and the variety of buying and selling options available on the public market. Private sales are also becoming increasingly attractive, especially during volatile market times, as they operate outside of auction schedules and reduce the risk of unsold works.
Online platforms like MyArtBroker offer a variety of Art Tech tools to help understand the fair market value of your Warhol print and can release liquidity in your artwork faster than auction houses by connecting seller's with buyer's year-round through our live Trading Floor network. If you are looking to sell your Warhol print, private sales allow you to avoid strict auction schedules, and our sales specialists can facilitate transactions seamlessly, with zero seller's fees.
Looking To Sell Your Andy Warhol Print?
Read MyArtBroker's Seller's Guide To Andy Warhol Prints and get in touch with us for a zero-obligation free valuation.
What’s Next For Warhol’s Market?
Among blue chip artists, Andy Warhol is one of the most dynamic. Unlike others defined by a single iconic image, Warhol himself embodied the icon. His legacy is better represented by the Factory, his studio where he produced a diverse array of works centred around portraiture. These portraits extended beyond celebrities to include consumers (as seen in Ads), fictional characters (as seen in Myths), animals (as seen in Endangered Species), and significant cultural events (as seen in the Moonwalk Suite).
Mastering the screenprint method, Warhol made his work accessible across various mediums, including canvas and editioned prints. This method allowed each print to often be part of a complete set of related imagery, forming a significant portion of his overall market. This approach has tapped into a lucrative market segment, making Complete Sets and Trial Proofs, with their unique colour variations, highly sought after. These segments offer portfolio diversification, bolstering the overall volume and stability of the art market, especially during periods of market softening.
Warhol’s market remains one of the most lucrative, continually driving the art market forward. MyArtBroker’s commitment to art tech tools and MyPortfolio collection management helps collectors make informed decisions on art buying and selling endeavours. In approaching months, we will be launching a series of reports offering insights into the markets of the most lucrative blue chip artists, in collaboration with a prominent partner. For those seeking more information on how to buy or sell Andy Warhol prints, including any of those discussed in this report, do not hesitate to get in touch with our specialists.
